Did bookies understand the results of this Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.

Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 per cent of voters deciding against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was since wide as 10 %; lots of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns were split straight down the middle.

The fact remains, polls were throughout the accepted place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote within the weeks leading up to your referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.

Margins of Error

Maybe Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured down ages ago. Whilst the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online activities gambling outfit Betfair had already decided to spend bettors who had their cash on a’no’ vote several times ahead of the referendum even occurred. And while there was a whiff of a PR stunt about this announcement, it was made from the position of supreme confidence, because the markets that are betting rating the likelihood of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at least a week before the vote happened. It absolutely was a forecast that, unlike that of the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead up to the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared to the gambling markets, and why is the media in such thrall with their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling companies openly acknowledge that their studies are inaccurate, frequently advising that we must enable a margin of error, commonly around five percent. This means in a closely fought race, such as the Scottish referendum, their info is utterly worthless. The existence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless in a race where one party, according to the polls, is leading by, say, 52 percent.

The Wrong Questions

You can find many factors that produce polls unreliable, too many, in reality, to list here. Sometimes the test size of participants is simply too low, or it is unrepresentative of the population. Often they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are dishonest or sloppy about recording information. However the ultimate, prevailing reason why polls fail is they usually ask the question that is wrong. Instead of asking people whom they are going to vote for, they ought to be asking the relevant question that the bookies always ask: ‘Who do you consider will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers suggests that this question yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also think on the opinions of these around them, and perhaps also since it may yield more honest answers.’

Dishonest Answers

Those interviewed by pollsters are far more likely to express their support for change, while suppressing their concerns about the possible negative consequences in a case such as the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change. When asked about a problem on the spot, it’s easier to express the perceived view that is popular. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might represent the appealing proposition of severing ties with a remote and unpopular federal government in Westminster, but in addition means uncertainty and feasible economic chaos.

As Wolfers claims, ‘There is really a historical propensity for polling to overstate the chance of success of referendums, perhaps because we are more willing to tell pollsters we will vote for change than to actually do so. Such biases are less likely to want to distort polls that ask people who they think will win. Indeed, in giving their objectives, some respondents may even reflect on whether or otherwise not they believe polling that is recent.

In a nutshell, when asked whether they might vote for an independent Scotland, a significant wide range of Scots apparently lied. Gamblers, having said that, were brutally honest.